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Virginia Tech at Louisville odds, picks and prediction

Geoff Clark
USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Virginia Tech Hokies (3-2 overall, 3-2 ACC) visit the Louisville Cardinals (2-4, 1-4) Saturday at 4 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Virginia Tech-Louisville college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Virginia Tech at Louisville: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:39 a.m. ET.

  • Money line : Virginia Tech -162 (bet $162 to win $100) | Louisville +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS : Virginia Tech -3.5 (-110) | Louisville +3.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under : 67.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Virginia Tech at Louisville: Three things to know

  1. Virginia Tech was its own worst enemy in last week's 23-16 loss to Wake Forest. QB Hendon Hooker threw three interceptions and the Hokies committed 10 penalties for 112 penalty yards. The loss dropped Virginia Tech out of the Top 25 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
  2. Louisville ended a four-game skid by pummeling Florida State 48-16. The Cardinals outgained the Seminoles 569-406 in total yards and rushed for 291 yards and four touchdowns.
  3. The Cardinals have been in the ACC since 2014 and this is its first game vs. Virginia Tech as a conference foe. The last time these teams met was in the 2006 Gator Bowl, which Virginia Tech won 35-24.

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Virginia Tech at Louisville: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks

Prediction

Virginia Tech 33, Louisville 24

Money line (ML)

This is a spot where last week's terrible performances from both sides make VIRGINIA TECH (-162) cheaper to bet against Louisville (+135). The Hokies outgained Wake Forest by 117 yards and had 11 more first downs but hurt themselves with turnovers and penalties. Those things will wash out as the season progresses.

Louisville boat raced a bad Florida State team, which can't attack the Cardinals like the Hokies can. Virginia Tech's ground game should trample Louisville because the Hokies average a third-highest 6.5 yards per carry and Cardinals defense ranks 79th in yards per carry (4.9).

The Cardinals not being able to defend what Virginia Tech excels at makes them a good bet. The money line is a little expensive, so I'd entertain putting this in a parlay but VIRGINIA TECH ( -162) is a winner.

Against the spread (ATS)

Virginia Tech's defense is starting to play better after a quirky start to the season. The Hokies suffered injuries and COVID complications over their first few games but are 33rd in defensive SP+ ratings (per ESPN).

Their defensive line has been bad this season but the Cardinals have been tackled for a loss 53 times this season. Also, Louisville is -8 in turnover differential. Virginia Tech's defense will make enough plays to help it cover this spread. BET HOKIES -3.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

I don't like the total here (67.5) but I am leaning to the Under.

Virginia Tech is 13th in the ACC in plays run per game and Louisville is 14th. The Hokies will control the ball and eat the clock. However, the combined Over/Under record of Virginia Tech-Louisville is 7-4 and Louisville's offense plays a lot better at home.

A lean is not a bet. Proceed at your own caution.

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